Optimum population refers to the size of a population that produces the best results according to chosen end targets. One text from 1926 presented a single end target as being “…the largest per capita income of consumers’ goods possible under the given conditions”.[1] Other potential end targets in favour of lower levels of population are cited to include: long term sustainability, efficient operation of democracy, the preservation of personal freedom and the preservation of biodiversity while potential end targets in favour of higher levels of population are cited to include the abilities: to preserve and foster cultural diversity, to stimulate intellectual, artistic, and technological creativity and to facilitate social infrastructure.[2]
Contents
- 1 Overview
- 2 Estimations
- Overview
| “ | Excessive growth may reduce output per worker, repress levels of living for the masses and engender strife.Confucius 551 – 479 BCE[3] | ” |
| “ | The concept or an optimum, or ideal, size of population concerns both theory and policy. Theoretically, there is for any given state or the arts and any given supply of available natural resources, together with a given supply of capital instruments and a given social organization, a certain size of population which can operate these resources to the best advantage and produce the largest per capita income of consumers’ goods possible under the given conditions. Journal of Political Economy Vol. 37, No. 1, Feb., 1929, page 87.[1] | ” |
Regarding the human population, end-targets for an optimum population include ecological sustainability, economic output[4] and philosophical or ethical ends-in-themselves.
Some commentators disagree with the concept of “optimum population”, believing that the human population will always, in the long-term, be able to adapt to the requirements of a larger population.[5]
Any conception of an optimum population level must lie between a minimum viable population or the human species and the maximum level of population that can be sustained by the carrying capacity of the planet Earth.
- Estimations
Various end-targets are often balanced together in estimating the optimum human population, and different emphasis on different end-targets cause variability among estimates.
The optimal world population has been estimated by a team co-authored by Paul R. Ehrlich.[6] End-targets in this estimation included:
- Decent wealth and resources to everyone
- Basic human rights to everyone
- Preservation of cultural diversity
- Allowance of intellectual, artistic, and technological creativity
- Preservation of biodiversity
Based on this, the estimation of optimum population was to be roughly around 1.5 billion to 2 billion people.[6]
