http://cenaa.org/analysis/technology-in-colonial-conflicts/
Author: Kemenyík Štefan
Abstract
Colonization (an ancient and medieval phenomenon) and colonialism (from modern times to present) represent efforts for direct or indirect expansion of territory and increase the military-political and economic influence of an aggressor. The aim is to gain access to natural resources, communications and labor markets. Part of this is violent promotion and legitimization of such behavior by force of arms. History and the present show the inseparability of colonization and colonial aspirations (and their success) from technical and non-technical technology in the whole breadth of this concept. The paper analyzes the role of technology in key events from early history of mankind to the present. It also notes the consequences of failure to appreciate the importance of technology in the past, and analyzes the potential of major players in world politics and current trends in the context of future colonial conflicts.
“Superiority in technology is critical and essential evolution advantage of human civilizations.”
Introduction
Colonization (Latin: colonus – peasant, farmer) is settlement of unused or sparsely populated area to create economic surplus. In principle, the mechanism of this is present practically with all life forms. At the level of bacteria, plants or animals it is penetration into new places where the species still don’t dwell. The primary reason of colonization in prehistoric times was searching for safe and food rich habitats. New organization of agriculture and manufacturing has brought local overpopulation, search for new farmland, construction of cities, and later distant trading stations as well. This was followed with the establishment of colonies or conquering the ones already established – colonialism. Despite many examples from the ancient world, the modern times were especially marked by colonialism and expansion of conquest by European countries. Subsequent disputes over colonies and the pressure for the acquisition of new ones ultimately led tothe Second World War, followed by a period of the First Cold War. Economic relations were defined by opposing ideologies – socialism and capitalism. Aggressive colonialism – imperialism (mainly western) at this time benefited from superior military – marked by the political and economic axis (NATO, EEC). A new era of colonialism – neocolonialism began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
This paper does not aim to judge military actions of the world powers. Moral aspects are just subjective, by local and time conditioned, concepts fueled by the evolution of human civilizations. Rather, the aim of the study is to show the factual relevance of development in technology and success of well-defined (colonial in this case) activities.
Technology
In general, technology can be identified as a method (usually standardized) of doing things in order to achieve a well-defined goal. We call it machines, apparatus, instruments (including virtual), equipment (or their complexes) designed and built to be able to – at physical or virtual level – and repeatedly to realize a specific activity – a technological procedure. In practice every activity of living organisms can be classified as technology, because of some degree of “standardization” and goal-orientation of their activities (survival technology). Even the philosophical, religious and ideological systems used in the history of mankind relied on technology for grasping and implementation of political power. Dramatic situations in nature (within or inter-species) give rise to conflicts and wars. Those conflicts waged in human history always brought significant technological jump. In the context of Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection, technological superiority can be considered as a critical and essential evolution advantage in the development of human civilization. The level of available technology and the rate of technological disparity are directly related to the effectiveness of realization of colonial goals.
A wide scientific community is still looking with suspicion at so-called futurological studies. The paradox is that best scientists work on projects of basic and applied research, carried out and funded by governments and technology groups based on studies of future development.[1] Under-estimation of the ability to look ahead can be demonstrated on an example of France’s military history. A young officer Charles de Gaulle in 1934 published an essay “Vers l’armée de métier” (The military craft), where he formulated a doctrine of the modern mobile war. He proposed the concept of professionalized, mechanized and armored vehicles equipped Army Corps. In France it earned him considerable antipathy in society and in the officer circles too. But he inspired the architect of German tank troops Heinz Guderian who developed this concept into a usable form and pushed armored mobility as one of the major doctrines of German armed forces. Later (between 1939 and 1940) it played a major role during so-called Blitzkrieg (lightning war) – German invasion into Poland and France. The unprepared opponents could not cope with the new tactics and technology and were quickly defeated. The only person who achieved local successes against the attackers was Colonel de Gaulle. On May 17th 1940 he attacked German troops in Montcornete. With tanks and without any air support he managed to stop the progress of German troops. On May 28th his tanks attacked German tanks at Caumonte and even forced them to retreat. He became the first and only French commander to force the Germans into a retreat during their invasion.
Colonization
The origin and evolution of the modern man (Latin: Homo sapiens sapiens) was associated with the gradual development of his own mental abilities. Each new piece of applied knowledge – discovery enables one to achieve a radical increase in the ability to identify relationships in other related systems. To some extent, the development of these skills can be identified in some animal species living near humans (horses, dogs, birds) as well. It can be assumed that this was also so at the beginning of human history. Continuous growth of research and development in products is a fact of life (linear in isolated areas – e.g. Moore’s law of computing and almost exponential in the global frame). But this growth is not continuous in the same area. The focus of scientific and technological progress gradually migrates not only through geographical areas (empires/states) but also across different disciplines. Every previous technological revolution (jump) establishes the basis for implementation of new theoretical knowledge in related areas. Thus in the middle ages innovations appeared in building and shipbuilding. In the modern era, we developed theoretical disciplines and their mathematical systems, which were followed by the development of industry and engineering. Advances in mechanics, and especially electricity and magnetism physics paved the way for physics of elementary particles, which laid the groundwork for advanced mechanical engineering and the modern electronics industry. Behind each new technology, there is a crossing of fixed ideas and new insight into the problem. One essential moment always opens a whole new area of potential applications. From the perspective of colonization and colonial activities, technological superiority was the deciding factor.
The first big wave of colonization in the history of mankind was agricultural in nature (migration of hunters-gatherers that came before it is not considered to be colonization). New and practical insight into original hunting technologies – a fire, axes and picker techniques – allowed for clearing of forests, and the initial ground cultivating successes. This allowed tosecure more permanent sustenance for more and more people, leading to local demographic surpluses. Villages and tribes were looking for suitable soil in their neighborhood, giving rise to external colonization – veturing to the more distant areas. Here were the origins of the first local residences and their fortified versions. Defensive functions of hill-forts were associated with the increasing tribe movement. In addition they have taken over other, for example administrative functions. They have become headquarters of the new – exclusive class (e.g. the dukes and their cohort).
The age of agricultural colonization was linked with traditional weapons of hunters-gatherers (fist-stone, war club, javelin, knife, axe, bow and arrow, and later sword and shield). A significant jump forward was achieved through domestication of animals. It is conceivable that it wasn’t man who domesticated the first animal – a dog, but rather a dog alone took the first step and began living alongside a man. He fed on garbage and in return he guarded his people from enemies and helped them with hunting. Domestic animals exist with a man for at least 10,000 years. At the beginning they were primarily intended for human consumption and as a source of raw materials. Their use for transportation and drawing came only later. This represented a further significant technological jump. Discovery of new agricultural techniques and animal breeding allowed for production of new economic surplus and set the conditions for external colonization. The most significant milestone was the domestication of a horse. It began in central Asia around 3,000 BC. First the horse was bred for milk and meat and only later man began to use it for passenger and cargo transport and agriculture works. Their use in transport and military brought a revolution in business and warfare. The domination of horse in transport and combat was definitely finished by WWI. Discovery of the wheel (about 5,000 BC) and wagon brought new techniques to transport and war-making (cavalry and war-wagons). The coming together of these factors created conditions for active colonization. Later in ancient times, movement of people and settling of peripheral areas of empires was actively supported by monarchs. The Hammurabi’s legal code for example allowed for soldiers to receive the land on the borderlands for their better defense. Roman emperors set up veteran legions as a colony in the periphery of the empire as well. Greeks as excellent sailors colonized western coast of Asia Minor, the Aegean islands, Sicily and southern Italy. Even the colonization of North America (from the 17th century AD) was agricultural in nature.
The development of trade in ancient times has brought the second great (trade) colonization wave. Business gradualy replaces agricultural migration and prevails. It is coupled with a new type of wars: a simple fight for survival and a local – plunder character of warfare was replaced by war leading to expansion and capturing of new territories, their resources and trade routes (e.g. Greece-Persian Wars, Carthage vs. Rome, wars of Alexander the Great). In ancient times (about 800 BC), Phoenician merchants started to establish trading stations and settlements around the Mediterranean coast. With the locals they exchanged their products and imported raw materials and grain. They were followed by the Greeks, who colonized the Black Sea coast. From trading stations cities gradually emerged. In the second century BC, the Phoenician settlements led by Carthage clashed with the expanding Rome. Rome won and took over Mediterranean trade. Its settlements and administrative network spread all the way to Britain. The Romans colonized the Balkans, western and central Europe. In the high middle ages, Venice dominated the trade with the Orient. In the 12th century, a rivalry developed between Venice and Hansa – Association of German trade towns. Expansion of trade and economic relations, with development of firearms and modern ship construction in the 15th century began a new – colonial and imperial era.
Another important technological success of antiquity was the establishment of regular armies. These developed martial traditions of tribal-leaders retinues and occasional armies. Also established were professionalization, system of command, quality and standardization of training and weapons, liaison, administration, logistics and welfare. The pinnacle of military organization as a war technology was reached by ancient Spartan army and later the Roman legions. These attributes represented (compared with traditional armies of antiquity, composed mostly of lords and cottars or slaves which had only weak or no military training) a high technological difference – an added value of combat potential. It allowed for expansion, management and peacekeeping in the empire and gave conceptual basis for modern and professional armed forces, as we know them today.
New designs of ships allowed in ancient times to cover longer trade routes by Greek and Phoenician sailors. Navy (bireme, trireme – rowboats differing in the number of oar rows) has become an important factor in deciding clashes of the Greece-Persian wars (Zamarovský 2002). Their results influenced the nature of our European civilization. The wars brought not only unique technology – the pontoon bridge (480 BC king Xerxes had built in the Bosphorus a bridge of more than 600 linked ships), but also a contribution to the military tactics and intelligence. Take the legendary king Leonidas and his 300 Spartans (hoplites fighting in phalanx formation) at Thermopylae (480 BC) or the marine strategists of Athens (Temistokles) who lured Xerxes into a sophisticated military operation. Except for modern maritime and ground strategy, intelligence games had been also part of war-making. These affected the actions of Persian kings. The first evidence of active intelligence and special units also comes from the ancient world. In Homer’s Iliad about the Trojan War (about 1160 BC), the Trojan horse concealed a commando. The operation launches the colonization of Italy and leads to the establishment of Rome by Trojan refugees. During the Roman-Carthaginian wars we identify the creation of marines (Zamarovský 2002). Aside from inventing a new type of warship – quinquereme (pentera), Romans equipped their boats with a bridge in front of the vessel. This allowed the transfer of legionnaires and land-style fighting to the opponent’s ship. In antiquity the first truly modern long-distance weapon appears – a catapult, conceptual antecedent of today’s artillery.
The medieval crusade brought to Europe new knowledge in astronomy, geometry, mathematics, cartography and alchemy. These were taken and developed by Arab scholars as a legacy of the ancient civilization. They brought into the center of spiritual European civilization truly a Trojan Horse – the basis of scientific materialism, exact sciences and organized learning (universities creation). Arival and expansion of Islam (which is an aggressive extract of the Judeo-Christian religious tradition) brought a new period of religious wars, which continues to this day. However, they were unable to prevent mutually beneficial trade exchanges between West and East. They stimulated researchers to look for new ways to travel to the far off Orient and India. The result was the re-discovery of America (North-American continent was probably already discovered by the Vikings, but logistical problems did not allow for effective and permanent colonization) and the establishment of new colonies in Africa and the Far East.
Technology of colonialism and imperialism
From ancient times to the present, the navy dominates colonial and imperial activities. The invention of gunpowder in China (about 7-9th century A.D) and its application since the 13th century in Europe opened a new chapter of ground warfare and the related industry. 14th century saw the expansion of manufacture of firearms and the Hussite wars in the 15th century with mass application in pistols, harquebus and cannons (Turnbull 2004). Together with birth of modern ship constructions (caravel and carrack) in the 15th century it opened a new – colonial era. Portugal already in 1415 occupied Ceuta, Azores (1427) and throughout the mid-16th century built up a network of settlements on the coast of Africa, India, China and Japan. Their settlements were later conquered and invaded by the Netherlands and since the 18th century by England. A Portuguese explorer Prince Henrich the Sailor contributed to the development of geography and established a school for navigators in Sagres. By him inspired explorers cruised along the West African coast in search for a route to India and the Far East.
By the conquest of Ceuta, Portugal gained the first ever-real colony outside of the European territory. Although Portugal lost its dominance in 1437, the world realized the potential of Africa and commercial shipping. Ivory, gold and other exotic commodities could be obtained without waging ground conflicts on the territories controlled by Moors. We note that the colonial history is dominated by countries with access to the sea and seafaring tradition.From a practical perspective land roads did not provide any possibility for establishing, holding and effective management of far colonies. The Crusades, due to these complications did not bring significant success. In practice, all coastal countries of Western Europe, wrote their chapter in colonial history. The race was started by Portugal in 1415, but was immediately followed by Spain. Christopher Columbus convinced the Spanish queen Isabelle of Castille to undertake an unsuccessful attempt to find a new route to India. However, on 12th October 1492 he discovered a new continent. Portugal, fearing the consequences of this discovery, reacted by launching a cruise around Africa led by Vasco da Gama in 1497-9. Even before this important voyage, in 1494, Spain and Portugal agreed to divide spheres of influence (Tordesillas treaty), and later on agreed on the geographic definitions too. It all started with the discovery and conquest of the American continent.
In 1588 England under the corsair Francisco Drake destroyed a part of Spanish Army and embarked on his own colonial expansion. While Portugal and Spain have focused mainly on the New World, the British, French and Dutch were carryng out active colonial politics in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Their empires in several waves established commercial stations and militarily and politically competed for territory and influence. The consequences of these activities are manifested till today.
It is evident that from ancient times to the present day, military and commercial navy dominated to colonial and imperial activities. Without military maritime technologies colonial and imperial politics would be almost impossible. Carracks and caravels were replaced in the 16-18th century by Galleons. They were massive sailboats able to carry huge quantity of goods and hundreds of armed soldiers. They had enormous firepower (up to 200 cannons). They could shoot cannon balls weighing 10-15kg to a distance of 500m and had a load capacity of up to 1,200 tons and required hundreds of men to operate. From the mid-17th century they served as ordinal boats. In the 16th and 17th century Spanish galleons transported rare metals from the New World and had to be protected by smaller ships (frigates, sloops, galleys) because of pirates. This is the basic concept, on which the modern navy combat (attack) group is based. Central mother ship (flagship), with the main fighting force and cargo space (for weapons, crew and commodities) is accompanied by smaller special-purpose ships for protection and some specialized functions.
The next revolution in transportation and warfare was brought by the steam engine. Steamships replaced sailboats and enabled further streamlining of maritime activities. Then the fighting of WWI hit. This was a result of conflicts of world powers for colonies, resources of raw materials and markets. Germany’s interests clashed against the interests of England and France. At the same time Austria-Hungary and Russia struggled for influence in the Balkans. Arrival of the new century was rich in a number of technical innovations. Many of them were also employed in the first global conflict. New types of propulsion (diesel and gasoline engine) gave rise to a car and later aircraft heavier than air. Created were the machine gun, tank and submarine. From global perspective, for imperial and world war activities was crucial the technologies of steam powered transport machinery – trains and steamboats.Chemical Weapons (WWI) and new technologies of WWII (radar, radio navigation, atomic bomb) did not bring a fundamental change in the role of the navy. However, its force was substantially expanded by introducing naval aviation and new – specialized aircraft carriers. They registered a local success in WWII in Europe (share in the sinking of battleship Bismarck – aerial attack from HMS Ark Royal). Yet another crucial role came in the Pacific in WWII (USA vs. Japan) that fully expressed all benefits of naval attack formation equipped with fighter aircrafts. Every global conflict brings a radical jump in the field of science and technology. Jet propulsion of aircraft, cryptography, missile technology, nuclear power engineering and computers are the results of rapid technological growth during WWII. In the long term, the most important technological development of warfare came with aircraft carriers.
Aircraft carrier is a large war-craft whose purpose is to transport and operation of fighter aircrafts and/or helicopters from its own deck. Provides the technology for their storage, maintenance, armament, take off and landing. It serves as a floating air base. First aircraft carriers have appeared during WWI (HMS Furious/UK) (Pejčoch, Novák, Hájek 1993). During WWII aircraft carriers have become a dominant force at sea and presently they are the largest warships in the world able to carry up to 90 (Nimitz-class) aircrafts and helicopters of various classes. Current aircraft carriers are defined by functional design. CATOBAR – Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery ones are designed for conventional fighters and combat aircrafts, equipped with (mostly steam) catapults and large landing deck (e.g. Nimitz-class/USA). STOBAR – Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery ones are equipped with a springboard for fighters start and with shorter landing runway (e.g. Admiral Kuznetsov/Russia). STOVL – Short Take-Off Vertical-Landing are equipped with a springboard for fighter aircraft launch with return only by vertical landing. The configuration is used for VTOL – Vertical Take-Off and Landing aerial vehicles like V-22 Osprey, AV-8 Harrier, Yak-38 and F-35B and helicopters. The most effective combat design is aircraft carrier of CATOBAR configuration. It has a massive arsenal of aircraft technology including heavy fighters. The biggest and most modern ships in this category (USS Enterprise and 10x Nimitz-class supercarriers) with nuclear propulsion are operated by U.S. Navy. In operation are also small CATOBAR ships of French (Charles de Gaulle) and Brasilian navies (Sao Paulo/ex France – Foch).
The First Cold War (1947-1991) brought development of missile technology (especially trans-continental missiles), submarine fleets and nuclear weapons. Nuclear energy has become not only a basis for deterrent arsenal of superpowers (USA and USSR) but allowed the emergence of a new category of fighter ships powered by nuclear reactors. Submarines, battle-ships and aircraft carriers allow for long-term operation in the target locations. Together with development of atomic weapons progressed also development of computer technology and radio-electronic warfare. Space program of the USA and USSR brought satellites, which have become an important tool of intelligence, meteorology, communications and navigation. This period was marked by focus on strategic class of technologies (strategic missile and air force and submarine fleet) with ultimate nuclear destruction power. Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1945) and the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) show superpowers reality of the possibility of mutual destruction. In case of rational political regimes (USA, Russia, France and Israel), they keep this technology at a level of deterrent against potential aggressors.
The Vietnam War (1955-1975) brought the first massive deployment of helicopters. They have become the standard technologies for rescue, transport and combat support applications. Their application was also found in the navy and naval aviation. Vietnam was the end of a prolonged colonial conflict that had its roots in the period of French capture of Indochina in 1893. It broke out at the end of WWII and ended the colonial ambitions of France and USA in Indochina. Even the so-called substitute Korean War (1950-1953) and short Suez Crisis (1965) confirmed the importance and necessity of aircraft carrier fleet deployment in conflicts in far-away locations. British and French aircraft carriers for example have served as a basis to achieve air superiority during the Operation Musketeer (Suez 1965).
The level of commitment in provoking and participation in an armed conflict is directly proportional to the economic interests of countries. Like the Spanish and Portuguese colonial powers in the New World, as well as the English in India, they had benefited from massive technological superiority. Peak of Indian culture and military traditions had been at the time of English colonial expansion longtime past. Firearms, boats, horses, artillery and especially highly organized fighting force totally overcome local civilizations – regardless of their numerical superiority. From the military-political point of view in this period entered onto the colonial scene also new – economic technology (a monopoly and joint-stock company). British East India Trading Company headquartered in London (1600-1874) was one of the world’s first joint-stock companies specializing mainly in trade in cotton, silk, indigo, saltpetre, tea and opium. It could declare war and conclude peace with local rulers, administer the territory around its fortresses and judge and punish the local population. Economically, the company was almost independent of the British king, although enjoyed his authority. A new approach where the crown protects and enhances the interests of the state by a private company was a breakthrough. In ancient times and even medieval empires, priority had been always given to state interests. By opening entry of private capital, officially arrived interests of private investors (Hirsch 2012) into politics and war. War has become a profitable investment – via technology that generates profits at multiple levels. A view of the modern neo-imperialist armed conflicts (including WWI and WWII) suggests that they changed just a cover for colonial aggression.
Economics interests of investors are reflected in politics and world politics generates conflicts in to order.The second invasion to Iraq (Third Persian Gulf War) in 2003 is a case in point. Blurred photos of containers allegedly containing chemical weapons of Saddam Hussein justify a masive military occupation of a sovereign country and taking control over its natural resources. The chemical weapons have not been discovered.The author’s opinion is that in the near future, we will also see (intelligence services) assisted local conflicts leading to weakening of the European currency and economic and political EU cohesion. Also, the actual wave of Arab-Islamic revolutions, establishing of Islamic fundamentalist regimes (Bradley 2012) precedes a high war potential for the near future. All this justifies the constant need for investment in military and special technologies. Return on investment into military research, development, production and operation is in the spirit of reproductive processes, typical for each business entity,dependent on war (Shanker 2012).Therefore, a war that is not economically profitable will not start.Nowadays, the investment and imperial ambitions have modern tools at their disposal – political correctness (making historical references, e.g. Munich Agreement = WWII), marketing tools (dissemination of fear and radical propaganda via publicity of terrorist acts), UN (world powers follow their own geopolitical interests (Stier 2012) and inability of enforcement of the resolutions (= Srebrenica 1995, Syria 2012, Iran 2012), military and intelligence technology, intelligence, by terrorism that is state-generated (1985 – Rainbow Warrior) or tolerated/assisted. The level of commitment of the militarily dominant countries to armed conflict is directly proportional to theirs economic – colonial interests in the given region. Geographical distribution of mineral wealth can illustrate the motives for unceasing neo-imperial activity.
Basis for neocolonialism and neoimperialism military technology
In the near future, colonial operations will be decided by navy carrier strike groups. They have a sufficiently complex combat arsenal for management and implementation of strategic offensive operations in far-away areas (e.g. USA in Persian Gulf). The core of the attack group will consist of a large (flagship) aircraft carrier (so-called supercarrier) the level of Gerald R. Ford CVN-class. Smaller aircraft carriers such as US LHD class, respectively an upgraded LHA-7 (AAS – Amphibious Assault Ship) (Naval-technology.com 2012) class or UK HMS Queen Elizabeth-class, will not have the capacity to form a core of strategic level attack group. Further elements will be provided by cruisers, at minimum of the Ticonderoga-class, and destroyers Arleigh Burke-class (equipped with an integrated system for air defense against mass attacks of supersonic antiship missiles at least at the level of the Aegis system) (Lockheed Martin 2012), frigates and several nuclear attack submarines. Those will protect the aircraft carrier and the battle group against possible attack from ships or submarines, while themselves also having a valuable nuclear and combat missile potential. A part of attack group will be also formed by supply ships with fuel, hospital, ammunition and other materials.
The success of all ground operations will depend on capability to establish air superiority in the area of combat activities. This will be provided by F/A-class board fighter aircrafts (Fighter/Attack). Currently they are the heavy navy fighters gen. 4+ F/A-18E-F Super Hornet and a lighter one – the French Rafale M. The F-22 Raptor, 5th generation still awaiting its navalized-navy version. The F-35 Lightning II in B/STOVL and C/CATOBAR configuration will increase the tactical combat capacity of US and UK naval aviation and marines. This highly maneuverable fighter shall have a role especially in protection of naval group, in maneuver fighting and operations in urban environments. Its technical specifications, namely one engine and dimensions and limited space for fuel and weapons systems in stealth mode, does not allow it to fully replace F/A-class heavy fighters. That’s why F-35 will not bring the awaited breakthrough in the modernization of naval fleet and will just replace tactical STOVL-class fighter AV-8 Harrier. However, F-35 could be the last manned fighter jet designed for US air forces (Unmanned Vehicles 2012). A promising candidate for the gen. 5th naval interceptor could be a Russian concept of Sukhoi Su-T-50. The dimensional and aerodynamic configuration of stealth-ized Su-27 could be more useful for aircraft carriers than the conventional configuration of Su-33. But the fact is that without smartly designed supercarrier CATOBAR configuration, Russia’s new naval fighter will have zero effect. To speak of maritime usability of the Chinese J-20 concept is premature; more effective appears the J-31 concept, whose external design is based on the American F-22. European countries (UK, Germany, Italy and Spain) use a modernized gen. 4+ fighter concept with stealth elements – the Eurofighter Typhoon. From this concept during development broke away a project of French Dassault Rafale, also with its fully navalized M version (dislocated on aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle/CATOBAR).Gen. 4+ aircraft (Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale, J-10) will not be able fully to compete with a modern stealth gen. 5 and 6 platforms in the future.
Neoimperialism and future technology
If there is a concept of imaginable technology, it is just a matter of time before it becomes real. Technologies for design, construction and implementation of technical solutions (computer constructing and 3D prototyping) have brought a revolution in terms of small- scale production and production in remote conditions (war zone or space mission) – all from local material sources, and with use of applied development. In the past, the most important factor was to group together the conditions for development and implementation of ideas. Nowdays development starts with an idea. The challenge for the future will be to find creative people who will produce innovations-ideas. Especially for Russia and China, they will find themselves in a very difficult position to attract and keep top professionals (scientists and engineers) for their future weapons programs, because their post-communist acces to financial and moral evaluation of scientists. Currently, they are focusing more on foreign industrial and scientific-technological intelligence than on their own research and development (e.g. Ihned.cz 2012).
The new generation of US aircraft carriers with nuclear propulsion – CVN Gerald R. Ford-class (CATOBAR configuration) will become the most effective fighting platform in history of mankind. It will create a core of attack group with strategic impact. Except conventional and nuclear technologies, it will also have new EMALS (Electro-Magnetic Launch for Carriers), defensive Laws (Laser Weapon Systems), upgraded gen. 4+ fighters – F/A-18E-F and EA-18G, and UAVs (e.g. X-47 – youtube.com 2011; or Predator C). Modernized will also be the platform SH-60 (MH-60S) and through navalization F-22 will also be used. The attack group will also operate unmanned surface and underwater systems and electromagnetic guns with effective firing range of more than 200 km. On vessels and some air vehicles shall be applied systems of adaptive thermal and optical visual masking and stealth elements reducing RCS (Radar Cross Section) (Grant 1998; Richardson 2001). Systems of radioelectronic fight and missile defense (e.g. Aegis) are already commonplace.
Conclusion
The United States will dominate the near future colonial conflicts.
The most important technological breakthroughs in the history of mankind, from the perspective of colonization and colonial activities (in chronological order) are: the domestication of horse, establishment of maritime shipping, creation of organized army, gunpowder discovery and design of firearms, James Watt’s steam engine, construction of internal combustion engines and fuels, design of aircraft and establishment of naval aviation. We have shown development of colonial activities and technologies that make them possible. We have shown a fundamental impact of the navy and later, naval aviation. They are and in the near future also will be the deciding factor in implementing neo-imperialist colonial activities. Only the United States has, and in next 30 years will have, the necessary technology for militarily efficient and time-relevant military intervention anywhere in the world. Russia and China will not at this time able to achieve a comparable level of technology. It will not be possible without massive investment into advanced weapons programs and without decades of development and acquisition of invaluable experiences with operation of aircraft carriers. If the USA will continue to invest in development programs at current levels, they’ll keep their generational technological edge. Russia has a tradition of aeronautical engineering firms capable of producing a quality fighter plane (current Su-35 and Su-50 concept PAK-FA), while China is skillfully copying and applying external signs of modern technology (J-10, J-20, J-31). But even modern naval aircraft or stealth design is not enough. Naval battle group needs also bombers, UAVs, reconnaissance and transport planes, helicopters, submarines, destroyers, missile defense, satellites and many other things. And most importantly, it needs a big aircraft carrier (CATOBAR supercarrier) able to carry enough aircrafts (80-90) and between them also heavy fighters F/A-18E-F or Su-33-class, able to achieve air superiority. No country presently has the sea or air technology of outgoing generation US aircraft carriers (CVN Nimitz-class) and not at all of the new generation CVN-21 Gerald R. Ford (Naval-technology.com). UK’s investments (RoyalNavy.mod.uk 2012) to STOVL carriers – HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales / equipped with the F-35B obtains effective tools at tactical level, suitable for self-defense and protection of already achieved colonial positions – it does not allow to carry out independent and extensive colonial activities in far-away areas. Russia, China and India due to economic and technological incapability to build and operate the necessary number of naval battle groups (with a large nuclear aircraft carrier) direct their military colonial targets on their surroundings. Russia has strengthened its military presence in the Arctic region. China has the ambition to project its military capability against Taiwan, Philippines, and India and economically in Africa. These countries can thus realize goals achievable by present and modernized conventional maritime and land technologies. Future zones of neo-colonial ambitions will be especially in the Arctic, South China Sea, Persian Gulf, and later in the African countries rich in raw materials essential for electrotechnical industry. Near future combat operations will be realized with manned and remote-controlled warfare vehicles (e.g. Boeing’s gen. 6th F/A-XX) (Trimble 2012). Remote control of UVs can not (in battle) provide such level of reality to compete with pilot’s in situ ability to use his professional instinct to predict and evaluate the situation and react in other than a routine style. Improvisation and non-serial solutions will always be one step ahead of robots. UV’s disadvantage is their dependence on the quality of control and fighting data transmission and the possibility of its active interference by enemy systems. Advantage of future combat UVs will be in the ability to realize maneuvers that are physically incompatible with human life. No AI presently allows operating fully autonomously controlled battle systems at the strategic or tactical level. Continuous increasing of combat operations in urban environments already calls for further battlefield digitization and robotization at all levels. Flying, walking, sailing and space combat and intelligence platforms are logical continuation of current trends based on now imaginable and viable technologies. Multi-elemental aircraft carriers and space battle stations are just a matter of time, economic efficiency and degree of colonial rivals’ (USA, Russia and China) assertiveness to gain influence in the new territories (marine and subsea environments and extra terrestrial objects – planets (Mars-One.com 2012; Kráčalík 2012) and asteroids (Marks 2012).
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[1] e.g.: world famous futurist and technological visionary Raymond Kurzweil, http://www.kurzweilai.net andhttp://www.kurzweiltech.com/aboutray.html
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